IF I PICKED THE OSCARS - 2003 EDITION
Honestly, I've haven't cared that much for the Academy Awards since Goodfellas got the shaft. They're a self-congratulatory industry lovefest designed to honor "event films" that rarely recognize the truly deserving movies. What's more, people can scarcely be bothered to care anymore. Kind of unfortunate this year, as there are actually some interesting nominations in the absence of a traditional "Oscar movie." As many have pointed out, the Academy's recognition of Miramax's underhyped City of God over their anointed candidate Cold Mountain represents a victory of sorts of quality films over big event films. So, though I'm not terribly excited about this year's awards, I'm at least interested to see how it all shakes out. Here's my annual list of my picks from among the nominees, along with predictions for who will actually win.

BEST PICTURE
Nominees: Return of the King, Mystic River, Lost In Translation, Master and Commander, Seabiscuit
Favored to win: Return of the King
My choice: Return of the King

As much as I dislike the practice of giving Oscars for cumulative work, Peter Jackson deserves recognition for the remarkable feat of not only bringing Tolkien's trilogy to life, but also for making it engrossing even for non-sword dorks. It's not my favorite of the trilogy (currently it's Two Towers), but it's good enough to take the prize from this field. Mystic River is overrated, LIT is too limited in scope, and Seabiscuit was an overblown TV movie. M&C actually rated higher on my top ten list than ROTK, so I'd be fine with that one winning. Better choices than any of these would be City of God or American Splendor.

BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Sean Penn (Mystic River), Ben Kingsley (House of Sand & Fog), Bill Murray (Lost In Translation), Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean), Jude Law (Cold Mountain)
Favored: Penn
My choice: Kingsley or Murray

I know, Kingsley's perennial Oscar bait, but so what-he's a great actor, and his performance in House of Sand & Fog is powerful stuff. I'd like to see Depp recognized, as I feel he's one of (if not the) best American film actors currently working, but as fun as he was in POTC, the role was more scene-stealing that actually acting. Bill Murray would also be an interesting choice, as he absolutely carried LIT, though his real Oscar-deserving performance in Rushmore was ignored by the Academy.

BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Charlize Theron (Monster), Diane Keaton (Something's Gotta Give), Naomi Watts (21 Grams), Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider), Samantha Morton (In America)
Favored: Theron
My choice: Castle-Hughes

I have not yet seen Monster, so I can't pick Charlize Theron, who just about every critic says is deserving of the Oscar. I was absolutely bowled over by newcomer Keisha Castle-Hughes' unaffected and completely believable performance as a girl born to greatness in a traditionally male-centric culture. If you can watch the scene where she tearfully addresses the school assembly without getting choked up, you should see a doctor to make sure your heart hasn't been removed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Alec Baldwin (The Cooler), Tim Robbins (Mystic River), Benicio Del Toro (21 Grams), Djimon Hounsou (In America), Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai)
Favored: Robbins
My choice: Watanabe

Robbins is not a horrible choice for this award, but for my money Watanabe was the best thing about Last Samurai. He's absolutely magnetic, commanding the screen with a presence you just don't see that often anymore. Hopefully he'll continue to get parts that the Academy deems Oscar-worthy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Shoreh Agdashloo (House of Sand & Fog), Patricia Clarkson (Pieces of April), Marica Gay Harden (Mystic River), Holly Hunter (Thirteen), Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain)
Favored: Zellweger
My choice: Agdashloo

Oh, great. Another Oscar for the supremely mediocre Zellweger. She's not a bad actress, but does she really deserve more Oscars than Meryl Streep? Agdashloo deserves the statue. I might have picked Clarkson, had she been nominated for The Station Agent.

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Sofia Coppola (Lost In Translation), Clint Eastwood (Mystic River), Peter Jackson (RotK), Fernando Meirelles (City of God), Peter Weir (Master and Commander)
Favored: Jackson
My choice: Meirelles

It wouldn't be a crime if any of these directors won. In my opinion, Fernando Meirelles' ability to craft an engrossing and believable story with a cast of non-actors was the best achievement of the field. Jackson should get recognition for his achievement over the epic trilogy, and that's fine. Coppola hit all the right tones with her delicate work on LIT, but I think the success of the movie depended more on Bill Murray's ad-libs. Weir and Eastwood's efforts were solid and workmanlike-I especially enjoyed Weir's depiction of the close friendship between Crowe and Bettany's characters: completely believable without superfluous flashbacks and intelligence-insulting backstory.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Denys Arcand (The Barbarian Invasions), Sofia Coppola (Lost In Translation), Steven Knight (Dirty Pretty Things), Jim Sheridan, etc. (In America), Andrew Stanton, etc. (Finding Nemo)
Favored: Coppola
My choice: Knight

Will the voters give Sofia Coppola this award as a consolation prize because they felt they had to vote for Jackson in Best Director? Possibly. I think it would be a mistake; LIT's pleasures lie in unscripted moments, unspoken thoughts, and in the city of Tokyo itself. My favorite screenplay was the woefully under recognized Dirty Pretty Things, which made us feel for the plight of Britain's immigrant underclass without pandering to rank sentimentality. It's an engrossing romantic thriller that plays differently than that description would suggest. Add a welcome dollop of black humor, and you've got the best screenplay of the year, hands-down.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Shari Springer Berman, etc. (American Splendor), Brian Helgeland (Mystic River), Braulio Mantovani (City of God), Gary Ross (Seabiscuit), Fran Walsh, etc. (Return of the King)
Favored: Helgeland
My Choice: Springer Berman

Tough competition here. I'd give the nod to Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini's American Splendor, a film that made us care about the curmudgeonly Harvey Pekar (where the hell is Paul Giamatti's nomination, by the way?) and his supporting cast of misfits and weirdos without gimmicky theatrics. City of God was great, but I can't judge the original screenplay as I don't speak Portugese (but then again, neither do most of the voters, I'd wager). Walsh and Philippa Boyens should be recognized for faithfully translating the spirit of Tolkien's wordy and decidedly uncinematic prose; however, I feel RotK's script was the weakest of the three. Much like Frodo himself, the screenplay seems to tire out as we progress up Mount Doom.

ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: Brother Bear, Finding Nemo, Les Triplettes de Belleville
Favored: Finding Nemo
My choice: Cowboy Bebop: The Movie...all right, Nemo.

ORIGINAL SONG
Favored: "Into the West" (Return of the King)
My choice: "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" (A Mighty Wind)

ORIGINAL SCORE
Favored: Howard Shore (Return of the King)
My choice: Shore

EDITING
Favored: Jamie Selkirk (Return of the King)
My choice: Daniel Rezende (City of God)
Come on. No matter what you thought of the movie, you can't hold up RotK as an outstanding achievement in editing. Selkirk probably did as good a job as possible with the source material, but the pacing is just too problematic. Critics are divided on City of God's quality, but I don't think anyone can deny the edgy energy imparted by Rezende in combination with the cinematography (see below).

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Favored: John Schwartzman (Seabiscuit)
My choice: Cesar Charlone (City of God)
Or, on the opposite end of the spectrum, Russell Boyd's majestic seascapes in M&C. Although Schwartzman gets kudos for making horse racing look interesting.

ART DIRECTION
Favored: Ngila Dickson (Return of the King)
My choice: Dickson

COSTUME DESIGN
Favored: Ngila Dickson, etc. (Return of the King)
My choice: Dickson, for either RotK or The Last Samurai

VISUAL EFFECTS
Favored: RotK
My choice: RotK

FOREIGN FILM
Favored: The Barbarian Invasions
My choice: City of God. Oh, wait-that was nominated last year. But it's nominated in other categories this year. I don't get it!

That's it for now. I haven't seen any of the short subjects, though they will play here after the Oscars, so perhaps I will be able to offer my opinions retroactively.